I. Karbonat litiya: spot rezko idet vverkh, 170k vozvrashchayetsya
21 maya tseny na spotovyy rynok karbonata litiya znachitelno podnyalis. AkkumulYatornyy karbonat litiya kotiruyetsya po 177,500-181,300 yuan/ton, srednyaya tsena vyrosla na 4,500 yuan/ton ot predydushchego perioda; preмиум-akkumulYatornyy (>=99.6% dostavka) po 179,500-181,300 yuan/ton, takzhe na 4,500 yuan/ton. Promyshlennyy sort vo vsekh specifikatsiyakh takzhe podnyalsya na 400-4,500 yuan/ton. Indeks baza spota Fu Bao raportirovalsya na -2,950 yuan/ton, bez izmeneniy ot predshestvuyushchego torgovogo dnya.
Tsena spotovogo karbonata litiya
| Sort | Tsena/Dannye | Izmeneniye |
|---|---|---|
| AkkumulYatornyy 99.5% | 177,500-181,300 yuan/ton | +4,500 |
| Премиум аккумуляторный >=99.6% | 179,500-181,300 yuan/ton | +4,500 |
| Promyshlennyy - rudnyy | 176,100-178,700 yuan/ton | +4,500 |
| Promyshlennyy - rassol | 174,800-178,700 yuan/ton | +4,500 |
Analiz struktury spros-predlozheniye
- Uskoreniye sokrashcheniya zapasov: Na 21 maya, obshchestvennyye zapasy karbonata litiya po Fu Bao sostavili 99,900 tonn, snizivshis na 0.65% nedelya k nedele; zalogovyye kvitantsii GFEX upali na 746 t do 52,337 tonn. Ustoychivoye sokrashcheniye zapasov okazyvayet polozhitelnoye vliyaniye na tseny.
- Vliyaniye gornodobyvayushchego sektora: Kompaniya Core obyavila, chto shakhta Finniss polnostyu nachala vzryvnyye, dobycha i prochiye operatsii; planiruyetsya povtornyy vkhod na rynok litiyevogo spodumena v IV kvartale. Novost potolknula vverkh ozhidaniya rynka ot vosstanovleniya dalnego predlozheniya i razogrela spekulyativnyy sentiment.
- Stabilnaya struktura bazisa: Indeks baza spota derzhitsya na -2,950 yuan/ton, struktura kontango budushchikh ne menyayetsya, chto ukazyvayet na ostorozhnoye otnosheniye rynka k uluchsheniyu spros-predlozheniya na korotkom sroke.
II. Dannyye po sprosu na novuyu energetiku: upom ch 18% MoM, no god k godu pod davleniyem
Dannye assotsiatsii pasazhirskikh avtomobiley pokazyvayut, chto s 1 po 17 maya roznichnyye prodazhi novoy energii sostavili 400 000 edinits, chto na 12% nizhe god k godu za to zhe period, no na 18% vyshe mesyats k mesyatsu ot predydushchego. Sovokupnyye prodazhi s nachala goda dostigli 3,158 mln edinits, chto na 17% nizhe god k godu.
Iz interpretatsii dannykh, 18% рост месяц к месяцу otrazhayet sezonnoye ozhivleniye potrebleniya novoy energii, no 12% padeniye god k godu oznachayet, chto sredstva ne.proizoshlo. Tekushchiy bystryy rost tsen na karbonat litiya bolshe vizvann s storony predlozheniya (sbros zapasov + soobshcheniya shakhty), chem s s storony sprosa.
III. Ryinochnyye perspektivy
V kratkosrochnoy perspektive, predlozheniye litiyevoy soli ostaetsya upornym, sobytiya v gornodobyvayushchem sektore vozmushchayut ozhidaniya rynka, a роst месяц к месяцу v мае obespechivayet podderzhku. Оzhidayetsya, chto tseny voydut v fazu konsolidatsii. Po rezultatam issledovaniya (60% neytralnyy, 20% bychiy, 20% medvezhiy), tseny budut kolebat'sya v diapazone 175,000-182,000 yuan/ton.
Yesli ustoychivost sprosa v iyune ne opravdayet ozhidaniy, import zolotonosnykh rud iz Zimbabve uvelichitsya, registratsiya zalogovykh kvitantsiy uskoritsya, tseny mogut snova upast do 160,000-175,000 yuan/ton. Klyuchovyye peremennyye dlya nablyudeniya: tempt importa iz Zimbabve, skorost rosta zalogovykh kvitantsiy GFEX, proizvodstvo i prodazhi NEV v iyune.
